Build 50% of intended exposure now, add 25% only if at least four basket members retain positive forward-revenue revisions, and add the final 25% after contracted capacity converts into reported revenue. Trim if the basket reaches 136 before earnings catch up; hedge with SPY when the basket's three-month relative drawdown breaches 12%.
No Top Pick is declared: the direct contracts are compelling, but current cross-sectional valuation and execution risk do not support one auditable company-level fair value with at least 1.5:1 verified risk/reward. Relative opportunity is shown without pretending that Street targets are intrinsic values.
```tearsheet-chart {"type":"peer_gaps","title":"Tier 1 Exposure Map (not fair-value upside)","items":[{"name":"Microsoft (MSFT)","upside":32.5,"price":"$399.15","target":"OpenAI stake + distribution"},{"name":"Amazon (AMZN)","upside":30,"price":"$255.78","target":"equity + AWS/Trainium"},{"name":"Oracle (ORCL)","upside":27.5,"price":"$126.68","target":"Stargate/OCI capacity"},{"name":"Broadcom (AVGO)","upside":25,"price":"$381.80","target":"10 GW custom systems"},{"name":"AMD (AMD)","upside":22.5,"price":"$507.93","target":"6 GW milestone ramp"},{"name":"NVIDIA (NVDA)","upside":20,"price":"$207.40","target":"incumbent GPU platform"}]} ```